The recent balloon incident sent tensions soaring and caused the top US diplomat, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, to cancel high-level talks in Beijing. China criticized the US for its “overreaction” and claims that the balloon was a surveillance balloon, not a spy balloon.
That could lead to a full-scale conflict
However, tensions between the US and China are not limited to spy balloons. The two countries regularly lock horns over Taiwan and the South China Sea, and Mr. Aucoin warns that these issues could lead to a full-scale war. He suggests that negotiations with China are not plausible unless the United States wants to abandon all of its Indo-Pacific allies.
US and Chinese aircraft routinely interact in the airspace surrounding the South China Sea, and this is where an international incident could lead to an unexpected conflict. While US pilots are trained to observe and not engage Chinese or Russian military equipment, mistakes happen, and the unintended consequences of those mistakes can lead to disaster. This was nearly the case on December 21 last year when a Chinese J-11 fighter jet flew within 20 feet of the nose of a US RC-135 Rivet Joint, a reconnaissance aircraft that holds about 30 people.
China lays claim to huge swathes of the South China Sea, claims which its neighbors and the US do not recognize. With the US shooting down new objects in its airspace – the origin of which is yet to be established – the potential for “mistakes” in other areas of the world could be rising.
